So everyone’s talking about it. And everyone’s “considering” it. And several large publishers have said they will try it (and some already are). Trouble is… in most cases, it just won’t work.

Almost all news, commentary, and opinion is replicable by teams of similar skill. Therefore, it is very difficult to charge for it. And there is an almost zero marginal cost for other publishers to duplicate or rewrite the same content. Digital delivery has made the timely breaking of news paramount, and yet has also reduced the defensibility of such an advantage (most major news stories have already been replicated at the time of publication, via automated feeds, and appear on Google News almost instantly, and are rewritten and passed around twitter in blog or tweet format within minutes.

If all major publishers colluded over charging for content (which is as likely as the other suggestion: that they all ‘withdraw’ their content from Google News…) there will still be bloggers and news outlets that would soon establish a large audience because the offer it for free. It reminds me a little of the Nash Equilibrium from Economics 101. Yes, all publishers would do better by charging for content. But no, it won’t happen, because someone won’t charge and will therefore win market share. As far as I can see, the fundamental issue with paid-content is that for most publishers, it just won’t work.

User behaviour and expectations are incredibly difficult to change. We now expect content to be free. Rupert Murdoch can talk up the paid-content model all he wants, but it is not convincing anyone – apart from a few newspaper executives that think they can change deeply-ingrained consumer behaviour. The circulation department has never been the main profit centre of newspapers. That’s always been the job of the sales floor. And so it should remain. Circulation should be as high as possible, to allow the salespeople to create as much value as possible for products and services needing an audience.

By charging for content that is ubiqitous, publishers simply start a race to the lowest price, which is over before it has even begun. Yes, the MediaGuardian could charge for its content. But would Jeff Jarvis ever charge for his personal blog… So all I need to do is find a few experts about the topics I love, and I no longer need the MediaGuardian. Other revenue models must be found.

Update: It is definately worth reading the article and discussion here for a better look at the maths behind paid-content.